Seasonal Forcing Drives Spatio-TemporalPattern Formation in Rabies Epidemics
Seasonal forcing is identified as a key pattern generating mechanism in an epidemic model of rabies dispersal. We reduce an established individual-based high-detail model down to a deterministic conceptual model. The characteristic wave pattern characterized by high densities of infected individuals is maintained throughout the reduction process. In our model it is evident that seasonal forcing is the dominant factor that drives pattern formation. In particular we show that seasonal forcing can cause splitting of epidemic wave fronts.
Figure 1: Pattern formation in a simulated rabies epidemic, due to seasonal forcing.