Paper published:

Cross-feeding creates tipping points in microbiome diversity
A key unresolved question in microbial ecology is how the extraordinary diversity of microbiomes emerges from the interactions among their many functionally distinct populations. This process is driven in part by the cross-feeding networks that help to structure these systems, in which consumers use resources to fuel their metabolism, creating by-products which can be used by others in the community. Understanding the effects of cross-feeding presents a major challenge, as it creates complex interdependencies between populations which can be hard to untangle. We address this problem using the tools of network science to develop a structural microbial community model. Using methods from percolation theory, we identify feasible community states for cross-feeding network structures in which the needs of consumers are met by metabolite production across the community. We identify tipping points at which small changes in structure can cause the catastrophic collapse of cross-feeding networks and abrupt declines in microbial community diversity. Our results are an example of a well-defined tipping point in a complex ecological system and provide insight into the fundamental processes shaping microbiomes and their robustness. We further demonstrate this by considering how network attacks affect community diversity and apply our results to show how the apparent difficulty in culturing the microbial diversity emerges as an inherent property of their cross-feeding networks.

Paper Published:

Positioning possibilities for human geographies of the sea
This paper positions possibilities for human geographies of the sea. The growing volume of work under this banner has been largely qualitative in its approach, reflecting, in turn, the questions posed by oceanic scholars. These questions necessitate corresponding methods. Whilst this is not necessarily a problem, and the current corpus of work has offered many significant contributions, in making sense of the human dimensions of maritime worlds, other questions —and methods—may generate knowledge that is useful within this remit of work. This paper considers the place of quantitative approaches in posing lines of enquiry about shipping, one of the prominent areas of concern under the banner of ‘human geographies of the seas’. There is longstanding work in transport geographies concerned with shipping, logistics, freight movement and global connections, which embraces quantitative methods which could be bridged to ask fresh questions about oceanic spatial phenomena past and present. This paper reviews the state of the art of human geographies of the sea and transport geographies and navigates how the former field may be stimulated by some of the interests of the latter and a broader range of questions about society‐sea‐space relations. The paper focuses on Automatic Identification Systems (or AIS) as a potentially useful tool for connecting debates, and deepening spatial understandings of the seas and shipping beyond current scholarship. To advance the argument the example of shipping layups is used to illustrate or rather, position, the point.

Paper published:

Sustainability
Many of the global challenges that confront humanity are interlinked in a dynamic complex network, with multiple feedback loops, nonlinear interactions and interdependencies that make it difficult, if not impossible, to consider individual threats in isolation. These challenges are mainly dealt with, however, by considering individual threats in isolation (at least in political terms). The mitigation of dual climate and biodiversity threats, for example, is linked to a univariate 1.5°C global warming boundary and a global area conservation target of 30% by 2030. The situation has been somewhat improved by efforts to account for interactions through multidimensional target setting, adaptive and open management and market-based decision pathways. But the fundamental problem still remains—that complex systems such as those formed by the network of global threats have emergent properties that are more than the sum of their parts. We must learn how to deal with or live with these properties if we are to find effective ways to cope with the threats, individually and collectively. Here, we argue that recent progresses in complex systems research and related fields have enhanced our ability to analyse and model such entwined systems to the extent that it offers the promise of a new approach to sustainability. We discuss how this may be achieved, both in theory and in practice, and how human cultural factors play an important but neglected role that could prove vital to achieving success.