BioND — Dynamics of Biological Networks

Seasonal forcing drives spatio-temporal pattern formation in rabies epidemics

Niels von Festenberg, Thilo Gross, and Bernd Blasius
Mathematical Modeling of Natural Phenomena 2(4), 63-73, 2007.


Spatiotemporal pattern

Seasonal forcing is identified as a key pattern generating mechanism in an epidemic model of rabies dispersal. We reduce an established individual-based highdetail model down to a deterministic conceptual model. The characteristic wave pattern characterized by high densities of infected individuals is maintained throughout the reduction process. In our model it is evident that seasonal forcing is the dominant factor that drives pattern formation. In particular we show that seasonal forcing can cause splitting of epidemic wave fronts.